Can Anyone Really Predict Weather This Early? 

It is early September.  

Still officially summer. Most of us haven’t put away the lawnmower, dug out the sweaters, or thought about where we left our snow shovel last spring. 

And yet people are already searching for the winter weather news, including what kind of winter we can expect here in Ohio. 

The Old Farmer’s Almanac recently released its 2026-2027 winter forecast. So has the Farmer’s Almanac. And soon those maps will be making the rounds on social media, with Ohio labeled something like “frigid and snowy” or “bitterly cold.” 

But I have often wondered – how do they know? 

How can anyone possibly know in September what the weather will be like in January? The answer, it turns out, is that they don’t. At least not exactly.  

Insight from Long-Range Forecasts 

No one can tell us now whether SW Ohio will get six inches of snow on January 23 or whether we will have a white Christmas. Long-range forecasts aren’t really designed to do that. Instead, forecasters look at large weather patterns and determine whether a season is likely to be warmer, colder, wetter, or drier than usual. 

One of the things they are watching for the 2026-2027 winter is El Niño. 

El Niño happens when water in parts of the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. That may seem a long way from Ohio, but changes in ocean temperatures can affect the jet stream and weather patterns across the United States. 

So that helps explain how meteorologists make long-range forecasts. But what about the almanacs? 

Insight from The Old Farmer’s Almanac 

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been predicting the weather since 1792. Yes, 1792. George Washington was president when the first edition was published. 

Its method has changed over the years, of course, but the publication says its long-range forecasts use a combination of solar science (where they track magnetic storms on the sun), weather patterns, and modern meteorology. The exact mathematical formula is still a secret – and is locked in a vault at its New Hampshire headquarters. 

And the Old Farmer’s Almanac isn’t the same thing as the Farmer’s Almanac, although I admit I didn’t know that until recently.  

The Old Farmer’s Almanac vs The Farmer’s Almanac 

The Farmer’s Almanac came along in 1818 and has its own secret formula for predicting the weather. Their mathematical formula factors in moon cycles and tides. While the Old Farmer’s Almanac makes its forecast using a team of scientists and an editor, the Farmer’s Almanac is calculated by a single anonymous person using the pseudonym “Caleb Weatherbee,” to protect him or her from being hassled by critics and competitors. The current Mr. Weatherbee has held the role for almost 30 years, but even the managing editor of the almanac does not know his identity. 

Both almanacs say they have a pretty good track record. But it’s worth remembering what they’re predicting. They aren’t telling us exactly what will happen in our town on a particular day. They’re predicting general conditions across fairly large regions over fairly long periods of time. 

And sometimes they don’t agree. 

That’s true this year. The two almanacs don’t paint exactly the same picture for the Ohio Valley. 

• The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a cold and wet winter with the absolute coldest stretches happening in mid-to-late January and slightly below normal snowfall.  

• The Farmer’s Almanac predicts dramatic temperature swings and frequent cold snaps – one predicted around the Christmas holidays. They predict near normal snowfall levels but with snow starting as early as October. 

So, what does all this mean for those of us in southwest Ohio? 

We could have a cold, snowy winter. We could have a warmer winter with a few miserable cold snaps. We could get a lot of snow. 

Or we could spend January staring at brown grass and wondering why we bought that snowblower. 

In other words, we’re going to have an Ohio winter. 

But it is interesting that we are still so fascinated by predicting it. For more than 200 years, Americans have opened their almanacs to see what winter might bring. Today we also have satellites, computer models, weather apps, and meteorologists who study atmospheric conditions all over the world.  

And here we are, in September, still asking the same question people were asking when George Washington was president.  

What’s winter going to be like? 

I guess we’ll find out.